OVERVIEW

Dr Jim Chalmers has handed down his first Budget as Treasurer, with a focus on delivering the Government’s election commitments while containing the fiscal deficit. The economic forecasts suggest a challenging outlook for businesses, with GDP growth expected to slow while inflation remains elevated.  

  • New Housing Accord between government, investors and industry will see an initial $350 million invested to kickstart the delivery of one million new homes across the country over five years from 2024
  • NBN connectivity will improve on the back of a $2.4 billion investment that will benefit 1.5 million homes with full fibre provision (330,000 of which are in NSW)
  • Energy efficiency grants program worth $62.6 million will help SME improve energy efficiency and reduce energy use
  • Budget Savings of $21 billion over 4 years by removing previous Coalition programs, and $3.6 billion from cutting government spending on labour hire, advertising, travel and legal costs.
  • Budget Deficit of $36.9 billion assisted by a short term $40 billion revenue boost from commodity prices.
  • Stage-3 personal tax cuts to remain for now.

FISCAL AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

  • Economic outlook: GDP projections have been downwardly revised compared to the Budget released in March. The Australian economy is now forecast to grow 3.25% in 2022-23 (down from 3.5%), 1.5% in 2023-24 (down from 2.5%) and 2.25% in 2024-25 (down from 2.5%). 
  • Inflation: The forecasts for CPI growth have been upwardly revised, from 3% to 5.75% for 2022-23 and from 2.75% to 3.5% for 2023-24.
  • Unemployment: The unemployment rate is forecast to come in at 3.75% at the end of 2022-23 (unchanged from previous forecast). Amid a more challenging economic outlook, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in 2023-24 (up from the previous forecast of 3.75%).
  • Wage growth: The wage growth forecast has been upgraded to 3.75% for 2022-23 (up from 3.25% previously projected). Despite the upward revision, wage growth remains well below inflation, suggesting a real wage decline for workers this financial year. Wage growth is expected to exceed inflation in 2023-24. 
  • Budget deficit & net debt: A fiscal deficit of $36.9 billion is projected for 2022-23, which equates to 1.5% of GDP, a slight increase from the previous year’s deficit (1.4% of GDP). A larger deficit of $44 billion (1.8% of GDP) is expected in 2023-24. The fiscal balance is not expected to return to surplus over the forecast horizon. In light of the recurring fiscal deficits, net debt is projected to widen to $572.2 billion (23% of GDP) in 2022-23 and continue to grow over the forward estimates, reaching 31.9% of GDP in 2032-33.  

Table 1: Economic forecasts

Source: Budget Paper No.1 – Budget 2022-23 (Table 1.1)

Table 2: Budget aggregates

Source: Budget Paper No.1 – Budget 2022-23 (Table 1.2)


For more information from Business NSW, please contact:

Ben Pike, Executive, Marketing & Media Ben.Pike@businessnsw.com